The global shift towards working from home (WFH) has done little to reverse Australia's declining fertility rate, challenging expectations that greater workplace flexibility would encourage couples to have children, new research by independent think-tank e61 suggests.
The report found no discernible increase in fertility rates among Australian women in occupations that became more suited to remote working during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
The findings come amid growing concerns over declining birth rates across developed economies, with governments exploring financial incentives, tax concessions and family-friendly workplace policies to encourage parenthood.
Some earlier research had suggested that remote working could support higher fertility by reducing commuting time, lowering childcare-related pressures and giving parents greater flexibility to balance professional and family responsibilities.
A study published earlier this year by researchers from Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom found that adults who worked from home at least one day a week between 2023 and 2025 had higher fertility rates. When both parents worked remotely at least once a week, the total fertility rate increased by 0.32 children per woman, the study found.
However, Akyol's analysis of Australian data points to a different outcome.
She compared fertility rates among women aged 30 to 44 across occupations with varying levels of remote-working potential, using 2019 as the baseline. Despite the substantial increase in WFH arrangements after 2020, the analysis found little evidence of a corresponding rise in births.
While Australia experienced a modest increase in births in 2021, the downward trend resumed in 2022. The country's fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.48 births per woman in 2024.
Akyol said the COVID-19 pandemic had provided an opportunity to examine the relationship between remote working and fertility, given the significant shift in workplace arrangements during the period.
However, she cautioned that greater flexibility alone was insufficient to address the structural barriers influencing decisions about parenthood.
“Australia’s fertility decline is driven by various factors including the cost of raising children, housing affordability, economic security and the career costs of parenthood,” she said.
“Working from home can make some parts of family life easier. It reduces commuting time and gives workers more control over where they work, which may make it easier to combine paid work and care. However, it does not remove the financial and time costs of raising children, and it may not reduce the career costs of parenthood.”
The research also found that women in occupations with greater potential for remote working reported lower intentions to have children after 2020 and were less likely to plan for additional children. However, this trend had already begun before the pandemic, suggesting that the expansion of WFH had not significantly altered existing family-planning decisions.
Economic uncertainty has historically influenced fertility patterns. During the first five years of the Great Depression, Australia's fertility rate declined by 20 per cent, highlighting the relationship between economic conditions and decisions about starting or expanding families.
The findings come ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' latest release on births, covering 2025, which is expected to provide further insight into the country's fertility trends.
In 2024, Australia recorded approximately 292,000 births, with a national population of 27.8 million. By comparison, the country recorded around 300,000 births a decade earlier, despite having a population nearly four million smaller.
The findings suggest that while remote working can improve work-life integration, it may not be enough to address the financial pressures, childcare responsibilities and career considerations shaping decisions about having children.