Job vacancies are up, but so is turnover: What’s going wrong?

Australia is facing a deepening workforce crisis, with healthcare and social assistance and public administration and safety emerging as the only sectors currently experiencing a critical structural staff shortage, according to a recent report from recruitment platform JobAdder. While many industries struggle to hire, the bigger problem appears to be retaining staff, with long-term vacancies persisting despite ongoing recruitment efforts.

The analysis, drawing on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Jobs and Skills Australia, assessed job vacancy patterns from November 2023 to May 2025 across 18 major industries. It used advanced metrics — including Coefficient of Variation (CV%), Vacancy Ratios, and Business Turnover Trends — to categorise industries by levels of workforce pressure.

According to JobAdder’s talent acquisition lead, Victoria Cleghorn, “Some roles remain open quarter after quarter because workers are leaving faster than they can be replaced.”

“Persistent vacancies, especially when coupled with weak turnover growth, are a proxy for deeper retention issues. This framework helps differentiate between hiring driven by business growth and long-term structural shortages,” she added. 

The report uses the above metrics to categorise 18 sectors into 10 workforce pressure groups, ranging from critical structural shortage to low hiring pressure. In particular, high and consistent vacancy levels (CV under 8%) with weak turnover growth signal retention issues, not business expansion.

Persistent shortages, structual challenges

While multiple sectors face hiring challenges, healthcare and public administration stand out due to the consistency and duration of their unfilled roles, highlighting a deeper retention issue.

Healthcare in particular has one of the lowest CVs at 4.79%, meaning its vacancy rate remains highly stable, and persistently high, over time. Although vacancy levels have begun to decline modestly, the sector remains critically understaffed. The causes run deeper than recruitment alone. The sector is battling long-term structural challenges such as an ageing population, a rise in chronic illness, and widespread staff burnout. 

Meanwhile the public sector, traditionally considered stable due to government funding, is also now facing structural staff shortages. It reports a CV of 7.7% and a vacancy ratio of 22.34 per 1,000 workers.

Despite slight improvements between November 2023 and early 2025, vacancies have risen again, from 20,400 in February 2025 to 22,000 by May 2025, underscoring a growing inability to retain talent in public service roles.

Accommodation and food services is also facing a 10% rise in annual turnover, although this shifts its classification to growth-driven rather than critical shortage. With 39.77 vacancies per 1,000 workers and only a 1.8% drop in vacancies, the sector faces persistent structural shortages. Despite perceptions of seasonality, demand remains high year-round.

High vacancy and high churn across multiple sectors

Several industries, while not in critical shortage, are still experiencing structural and persistent hiring pressure, marked by high vacancy ratios, moderate consistency, and limited turnover growth.

Administrative and support services has the dubious honour of leading the nation with 61.4 vacancies per 1,000 workers. Although vacancies dropped by 16.5%, a CV of 9.3% suggests persistent demand. Particularly, roles in cleaning, labour hire, call centres, and temporary clerical work are often casual, short-term and high-pressure, conditions that drive frequent turnover and churn, even when demand is not expanding.

Mining, once seen as a secure, high-paying industry, is under quiet but significant workforce pressure. With a vacancy ratio of 31.12 per 1,000 workers and a CV of 12.57%, the data indicates variability in vacancies, likely reflecting instability in retention, particularly for remote or specialised roles.

More concerning is the 3.1% decline in industry turnover, indicating that current vacancies are not due to growth but to worker loss.

The knowledge-heavy sector of orofessional, scientific and technical services, which includes engineering, consulting, and tech services, shows persistent hiring challenges. With 28.5 vacancies per 1,000 workers, a CV of 8.43%, and modest +4% turnover growth, the data suggests that shortages stem more from a lack of qualified candidates than from sector expansion.

The wholesale trade sector has a high vacancy ratio of 29.33 per 1,000 workers and a CV of 14.83%, indicating moderately consistent staffing strain. Despite a 25% decline in vacancies over 15 months, low turnover growth (+1.6%) points to continued problems with role sustainability and job satisfaction.

Signs of stability in real estate, transport and education

Not all sectors are under pressure. Some are showing signs of workforce alignment and sustainable growth.

For instance, the rental, hiring and real estate services sector is expanding steadily, with a 20.83% increase in vacancies and a vacancy ratio of 23.82 per 1,000 workers. A moderate CV of 10% suggests manageable pressure and relatively sustainable hiring trends.

Transport, postal and warehousing also maintains healthy business activity, shown by a 4.9% growth in turnover despite a 6.96% drop in vacancies. With a vacancy ratio of 14.25 per 1,000 and CV of 10.37%, it reflects low to moderate hiring pressure with relative workforce stability.

And the data for the education sector runs contrary to widespread reports of teacher shortages, with a low vacancy ratio (9.7 per 1,000 workers) and a 10.3% drop in vacancies, suggesting improving balance between supply and demand. However, Cleghorn cautions that frontline experience may diverge from the data due to under-hiring or resource allocation in the public system.

Retention now the core challenge for recruiters

Recruiters are being urged to focus on role sustainability over time-to-hire. “When the same roles remain unfilled for 12 months or more, it’s a sign of a deeper disconnect between the job and what workers can realistically sustain, not a hiring problem,” Cleghorn noted.

She added, “In high-churn sectors, the most effective recruiters will be those who help organisations reframe what makes a role sustainable. Recruitment alone can’t fix workforce conditions, but it can spark the right conversations.”

Modern Applicant Tracking Systems can support this shift by helping recruiters improve candidate-role matching, identify long-term fit, reframe how roles are positioned, and smart use of technology enables a more strategic approach to recruitment, especially in industries where vacancies recur quarter after quarter.

Recruiters need to understand that the challenge is no longer just about how fast roles can be filled, but how long staff will stay. Helping clients distinguish between growth-driven hiring and structural churn will be a competitive advantage. “Retention is a shared challenge,” the report said. “The most successful recruiters will be those who help solve it.”