Australia in Focus: What happens after states hit vaccination benchmarks?

State governments are witnessing increasing pressure from federal leaders to end their lockdowns and enable businesses to operate once again. The pressure comes by way of Canberra possibly ending financial aid across states. 

Two weeks after a state or territory hits the 80% vaccination benchmark (that is, the population aged 16+ receiving a double dose of the Pfizer, Moderna or AstraZeneca vaccine), the federal government will halt key financial assistance programs, including payouts to people who are forced to stop work because of COVID-19 restrictions, The Associated Press reported. 

Back in July, state officials had agreed to lift lockdown measures once they reached that benchmark. The decision forms an essential part of the national recovery strategy outlined by the Morrison government and signed by state leaders.

Fast forward to today and the emergence of the Delta variant now casts doubt on the likelihood of states reopening soon after they reach that milestone. The surge in new cases has forced officials to consider easing restrictions only after a 90% vaccination rate is achieved.

The second phase of the four-part strategy, in which states approach the 80% target, is to “seek to minimise serious illness, hospitalisation and fatality as a result of COVID-19 with low level restrictions”. These include:

• Maintaining high vaccination rates, encouraging uptake through incentives and other measures

• Minimising cases in the community through ongoing low-level restrictions and effective track and trace

• Implementing lockdowns (less likely but possible)

• Implementing international border caps and allowing low-level international arrivals, with safe and proportionate quarantine to minimise the risk of COVID entering

• Easing restrictions on vaccinated residents

• Restoring inbound passenger caps at previous levels for unvaccinated returning travellers and larger caps for vaccinated returning travellers

• Allowing capped entry of student and economic visa holders subject to quarantine arrangements and availability

• Introducing new reduced quarantine arrangements for vaccinated residents

• Preparing/implementing vaccine booster programs (depending on timing)

READ MORE: Zero-COVID restrictions over? Australia set to reopen to the world

Life after lockdown?

Beyond the 80% benchmark, how will life change for Australians? COVID-19 measures may include:

• Highly targeted lockdowns only

• Continuing vaccine booster programs

• Exempting vaccinated residents from all domestic restrictions

• Abolishing caps on returning vaccinated Australians

• Allowing increased capped entry of student, economic, and humanitarian visa holders

• Lifting all restrictions on outbound travel for vaccinated Australians

• Extending the travel bubble for unrestricted travel to new candidate countries (Singapore, Pacific)

• Gradual reopening of inward and outward international travel with safe countries and proportionate quarantine and reduced requirements for fully vaccinated inbound travellers.

In the fourth and final phase of the program, Australians can expect:

• Open international borders

• Quarantine for high-risk inbound travel

• Minimising cases in the community without ongoing restrictions or lockdowns

• Living with COVID-19: management consistent with influenza or other infectious diseases

• Boosters as necessary

• Allowing uncapped inbound arrivals for all vaccinated persons, without quarantine

• Allowing uncapped arrivals of non-vaccinated travellers subject to pre-flight and on-arrival testing

“Every country has had their share of success and also of failures over this period of time,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison said during the announcement of the national strategy. 

“Managing your way through COVID-19 is unchartered waters, and anyone who thinks there is always a pathway that is without risk, that is without vulnerabilities, clearly doesn't understand the significant challenge that all nations face in dealing with COVID-19. But, those who understand this best are Australians who deal with this every single day.

“The good news I have for Australians who are subject to restrictions today is we have agreed a new deal for Australians on the pathway out of COVID-19. A pathway from a pre-vaccination period, which is focused on the suppression of the virus, on community transmission cases, to one that sees us manage COVID-19 as an infectious disease like any other in our community. Now, there is still some pathway from here to there, but the pathway we have agreed today I think, gives all Australians encouragement and I think much needed hope, in what has been a very difficult time.”